湖南省现代服务业发展因素实证研究

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERN SERVICE INDUSTRY IN HUNAN PROVINCE

通过建立一个多元线性回归模型,对1995—2007年湖南现代服务业发展变化的决定因素作了实证分析。结果显示:人均生产总值、制造业增加值、就业人数、固定资产投资、城市化率与城镇居民可支配收入对湖南现代服务业产值均有不同程度的影响,其中固定资产投入对现代服务业的拉动作用最为明显。与此同时,与我们的预期相反,人均生产总值以及城镇居民可支配收入对现代服务业的发展具有消极影响。然而,现代服务业产值与人均生产总值、城镇居民可支配收入之间具有单向的因果关系。

According to a multiple linear regression model, this paper makes an empirical analysis about the factors of modem service industry. The results show that： per capita GDP, manufacturing value added, employment, fixed assets investment, urbanization and disposable income of urban residents in Hunan have different degrees of impact to the modem service industry, including investment in fixed assets is the most important to the modem service industry. At the same time, contrary to our expectations, per capita GDP and disposable income of urban residents have negative impacts to the development of modem service industry. However, among the modem service industry, per capita GDP and disposable income of urban residents is the one-way causality.