一种改进离散灰色模型及其高校招生人数预测建模

A improved discrete grey model and its colleges and universities enrollment forecast modeling

分析了已有GM(1,1)模型和离散GM(1,1)模型的不足,建立了高校招生人数的直接离散GM(1,1)模型,并对相关实例建立模型进行预测.预测结果表明,直接离散GM(1,1)模型模拟预测精度更高,更能反映高校招生人数的增长趋势.

To analyze the defect of the existing GM （1, 1） model and discrete GM （1, 1） model, the direct discrete GM （1, 1） model of colleges and universities enrollment was built. For a case study, the predicted results shown that direct discrete GM （1, 1） model has better forecasting precision, and it is more close to the enrollment growth trend.