运用一维太阳风MHD CE/SE模型预报行星际激波到达时间

Predicting the Shock Arrival Time Using 1D-MHD CE/SE Solar Wind Model

在一维太阳风磁流体(MHD)数值模拟中,应用时空守恒元和解元(Conservation Element/SolutionElement,CE/SE)方法,建立了一个行星际激波扰动传播模型(1D-MHD(CE/SE)模型),用来预报行星际激波到达时间.收集了1997年2月至2002年8月间的137个激波事件,对激波到达地球轨道附近的传播时间进行了预测,并将预报结果与STOA,ISPM,HAFv.2以及SPM模型所得结果进行比较.对于相同的样本事件,1D-MHD(CE/SE)模型给出的渡越时间平均绝对值误差并不大于其他4个模型,且该模型预报的相对误差小于10%的事件占25.6%,小于30%的事件占69.3%,小于50%的事件占87.6%,其预报精度与其他模型相比基本相当.这表明该模型在空间天气的激波到达时间预报方面有潜在的应用价值.

A 1D-MHD shock propagation model（1D-MHD（CE/SE） model） is established to predict the arrival time of interplanetary shocks at 1AU,using the space-time Conservation Element and Solution Element（CE/SE） method.Applying this model to 137 solar events during the period of February 1997 to August 2002,it is found that our model could be practically equivalent to the STOA,ISPM,HAFv.2 and SPM models in forecasting the shock arrival time.The absolute error in the transit time from 1D-MHD（CE/SE） model is not larger than those of the other four models for the same sample events.Also,the prediction test shows that the relative error of our model is≤10% for 25.6%of all events,≤30%for 69.3%,and≤50%for 87.6%,which is comparable to the relative errors of the other models.These results might demonstrate a potential capability of our model in terms of real-time forecasting.