外资行业集中度与行业经济特性的面板协整检验与因果分析

Panel Cointegration Test and Causality Analysis on the Relationship between FDI Industrial Concentration Ratio and Industrial Economic Performance

本文运用面板协整理论和面板因果检验方法分析了我国1996-2007年间外商直接投资行业集中度、行业平均企业规模以及行业利税率之间的关系。多种协整检验方法一致表明,FDI行业集中度与行业平均企业规模、行业利税率之间存在着长期均衡稳定关系,而基于面板误差修正模型的Granger因果检验则表明行业平均企业规模、行业利税率与FDI行业集中度存在着长、短期单向的因果关系。这说明对于规模报酬递增和利税率相对较低的劳动密集型行业仍是外资高度集中的行业。

This paper uses panel cointegration theory and panel causality test approach to analyze the relationship among the FDI industrial concentration ratio, industrial average scale of enter- prises and industrial profit-tax rate. The result shows that there is stable relationship among the three factors above, and the Granger causality test which based on the panel ECM model shows there are short-term and long-term unidirectional causality among the industrial average scale of enterprises, industrial profit-tax rate and FDI industrial concentration ratio. It implies that the labor intensive industries which show the characteristics of increasing returns to scale and lower profit-tax rate are still the FDI highly-centralized industrials.