贸易创造还是贸易替代——对外直接投资与对外贸易关系的研究综述

Trade Creation or Trade Substitution:a Literature Review of Relationship between OFDI and Export

企业在海外进行直接投资后,会因当地生产满足了当地需求而替代对该国的原有出口,还是会因海外子公司的机械设备和中间产品进口等因素而创造出对该国的更多出口。有关这个问题的结论,对近几年迅速从贸易大国和引资大国走向投资大国的我国至关重要。本文在回顾了对外直接投资的贸易替代观点和贸易创造观点的基础上,进一步归纳出投资与贸易的权变关系观点及主要权变因素,并重点研究了我国近年来关于对外直接投资与对外贸易关系的代表性文献。最后得出了研究分析结论及有关政策启示。

After firms making direct investment overseas, will the investment substitute former export on account of local production, or will they create more export since foreign subsidiaries import machinery and intermediate goods？ This issue is of the utmost importance to today＇ s China, which promptly evolved from a country with only large I＆Es and inward FDI to a country with also large outward FDI. This paper reviews the trade substitution view and the trade creation view of OFDI, then summarizes the contingency view of OFDI/export relationship, and analyzes the main contingency factors. It also studies the representative literature of Chinese research on OFDI/export relationship. Finally, it obtains review conclusion and policy implications.