中波出底、短波震荡:2010年全球与中国经济形势分析

Rise above Bottom in Mid-wave Cycle and Shake in Short-wave Cycle:2010 Economy Outlook on World and China

当前经济形势扑朔迷离,政策退出一度成为社会各界讨论的焦点,迪拜世界债务危机、中国地方政府融资平台困境和欧洲债务危机又似乎给全球复苏进程带来了不确定性。从中波周期的视角来看,全球经济已经在新的均衡中进行价格体系重建,酝酿全面复苏的动能;而从短波周期来看,2009年全球经历了快速的去库存和强劲的补库存,2010年将在震荡中重建更高库存水平。无论全球经济还是中国经济,在2010年都将呈现出典型的过渡期特征:政策的推动力日渐趋弱,实际的和金融的力量正在缓慢恢复,危机和刺激留下的后遗症不断挑战复苏信号,但无妨复苏信心缓慢重建的进程。中国正在跨越刘易斯拐点和库兹涅茨转折点,经济调结构的关键在于推动主动城市化的进程。

The economy of 2010 is puzzling, ambiguous, or inexplicable. Policy-exit was the focus of discussion at the end of 2009. The Dubai Debt Crisis, local government dilemma of China, and Pig＇ s Debt Crisis pull the world in new panic. In mid-wave cycle, the world economy has been in a new equilibrium waiting for the recovery. In short-wave cycle, the world economy did rise in 2009, and will rise again in mid-2010. 2010 is a transition year, and continued policy efforts are needed to sustain the recovery and prepare for exit. The sequel of 2008-crisis and 2009-policy-stimulating will influence the confidence, but everything will be better. Guiding urbanization is the new source of economy development.