龙泉市流行性出血热发病趋势的Markov模型预测

A PREDICTION OF MARKOV MODEL FOR THE INCIDENCE OF EPIDEMIC HEMORRHAGIC FEVER (EHF) IN LONGQUAN CITY.

为探讨龙泉市流行性出血热(EHF)发展变化趋势,应用 Markov 模型预测法在对龙泉市1980～1995年 EHF 的发病率统计分析的基础上,对该市1996～1999年 EHF 的发病趋势进行了预测。结果表明:龙泉市1996～1999年的 EHF 年发病率状态将持续在>30/10万(高强度流行)水平。提示对此应予以高度重视。

In order to study the trend of epidemic hemorrhagic fever(EHF)incidence in Longquan city,a prediction has been made with Markov model for the incidence of EHF in Longquan city during 1996～1999,based on the epidemic data of the EHF during 1980～1995.The results shows that the condition of EHF incidence in the city will keep up the level over the 30/10~5(higher epidemic intensity)during 1996～1999.It is suggested that we should pay a great attention to EHF epidemic