中国城镇化水平和速度的实证分析与前景预测

Empirical Analysis and Forecast of the Level and Speed of Urbanization in China

根据对中国城镇化情况的实证分析和国际比较研究,本文发现,从总体上讲,中国城镇化水平是滞后的,这种滞后不仅仅表现为滞后于国内经济发展水平、工业化或非农化进程,也表现为滞后于国外同等发展水平国家或同样发展阶段的城市化水平;中国城镇化目前的速度基本合适,不慢也不太快。通过定性分析和运用时间序列预测法,估计中国城镇化还将保持较快发展的趋势,城镇化率仍将以年均提高1个百分点左右的速度推进,在2020年中国的城镇化率将达到60%左右。

In this paper, based on the empirical analysis and international comparative study of the actual situation of China＇ s urbanization, we find that, generally speaking, the level of urbanization in China is the lag which not only reflected in lagging behind the level of development of the domestic economy and lagging behind the process of industrialization and non-agriculture, but also reflected in lagging behind the level of urbanization in the same level of development or the same stage of development in foreign countries. In current, the speed of China＇ s urbanization is basically suitable, neither too fast nor too slow. Through qualitative analysis method and by using of time series prediction method, it is estimated that the trend of rapid development of urbanization in China will be maintained and the rate of urbanization will continue to increase at about one percentage point annually, and the urbanization rate will reach about 60% in 2020. Therefore, it is necessary to continue to raise the level of urbanization in China.