基于权力范式的汇率决定研究

The Study of Exchange Rate Determination Based on Power Paradigm

经典汇率理论往往只能部分解释现实汇率变动,其原因在于这些理论或者忽视汇率问题中的国家决定过程,认为汇率单纯被市场决定;或者没有正确反映国家的目标。事实上特定的汇率制度安排必然会影响到各方的具体利益,汇率变动将产生国际经济利益的再分配效应。鉴于此,本文通过描述国家经济权力、设定国家效用函数,建立了国家间汇率博弈模型,并分析各种策略下双方的效用改变情况。模型表明:基于经济权力的博弈决定了汇率的变动,真实汇率对相关利益方的影响状态与各方经济权力对比状态同构,即经济权力越大的国家主体,在汇率变动中越能够争取到有利于自身的结果,进而获得更大的国家经济利益,据此可以较好地解释为什么汇率会在中长期出现趋势性的变动。

The classical exchange rate theory only explains the change of actual exchange rate partially, the reason is that these theories might ignore the national factors and believe that exchange rate is determined by market factors only, or can＇t reflect the real national target. In fact, a special arrangement about exchange rate will affect the profits of all countries, the change of exchange rate will bring about the redistribution effect of international economic benefits. According to the description of national economic power and setting of national utility function, this paper constructs a game model about exchange rate determination and analyses utility change of different parties under various conditions. The model deduction shows that： the game based on economic power determines the change of exchange rate, the influence state of actual exchange rate relative to different parties is isomorphic with the contrast state of different parties＇ s economic power, that is the larger national economic power, they will strive for more favorable result in change of actual exchange rate and obtain more economic benefits nltimately, and hereby can explain the reason about long-term change trend of exchange rate better.