东南亚金融危机与美国次贷危机对中国经济影响的比较

Comparison of the Impact of U.S.Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis and Financial Crisis in Southeast Asia on China's Economy

本文以1997年7月～2001年12月和2008年4月～2009年7月的月度①统计数据②为基础,运用定量比较的方法,从对外贸易、股市、GDP、利率、货币供应量、财政支出等角度,对东南亚金融危机与美国次贷危机给中国经济造成的影响和危机期间的宏观经济政策作了详细的研究。结果表明,美国次贷危机对于我国经济的影响要大于东南亚金融危机,但是由于及时调整了宏观经济政策,采取了更加积极的财政政策和宽松的货币政策,当前我国GDP的季度增长没有太大的波动。

Based on the monthly statistical data of 1997.7-2001.12 and 2008.4-2009.7, by the way of quantitative comparison, this paper does a detailed research on the impact of financial crisis in Southeast Asia and the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis on China＇s economy and the following macroeconomic policy.The comparison includes the foreign trade, the stock market, GDP, interest rates, money supply and the government spending. The results showed that the impact of U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis on China＇s economy is greater than the Financial crisis in Southeast Asia. But because of the timely adjustments to macroeconomic policies, a fiscal and monetary expansion policy, the current quarterly GDP growth in China isn＇ t held back.