一种以人为中心的风险评估算法

An Approach for Hunan-centored Risk Assessment

从人为差错的辨识、概率计算和后果量化三个方面讨论人因事件风险评估的流程,并针对这三个关键问题设计相关的解决方案。针对人为差错辨识问题,设计一种统一的人为差错基本分类框架,作为差错辨识过程的模板库;针对人为差错概率计算问题,提出首先计算人为差错总体概率,然后结合历史事故统计资料计算具体差错模式发生概率的新方法;针对后果量化问题,按照先定性后定量的原则,设计一种后果量化值的确定方法。

That is to say, an appooach for hunan--centered risk assessment mustbe developed. In this paper, the approach is diss- eu^ed from 3 aspects of human error identification, probability calculation and consequence quantification and the solutions to the three problems are presented. Firstly, a generic framework for human error taxonomy framework is built for human error identificatiorL See- ondly, an new algorithm for human error probability calculation is designed. In this algorithm, the general probability of human error is calculated based on the context, and the concrete human error mode probability is acquired by multiplying the general probability and relative frequency of the human error mode from historical data. Finally, a new approach for consequence quantification is presented.