北京市甲型H1N1早期流行的特征与时空演变模式

Epidemiological Features and Spatio-temporal Evolution in the Early Phase of the Beijing H1N1 Epidemic

甲型H1N1正在全球快速传播,中国因人口众多而成为受甲型H1N1潜在威胁最严重的地区之一。基于流行病学调查得到的8月15日以前的北京市甲型H1N1病例数据,论文分析了甲型H1N1的流行病学特征,并探讨了94起聚集爆发事件的时空演变模式。论文还对比了北京市的甲型H1N1与2003年SARS的空间传播网络,结果表明,两次流行事件的空间传播模式具有类似模式,朝阳区—海淀区—城市中心区(东城、西城、崇文、宣武)是影响北京市疫情发展的关键。在资源有限情况下,重点关注这个三角地带的人群防控对缓减北京市甲型H1N1疫情会产生更积极的作用。北京市甲型H1N1的早期防控是有效和及时的。

Influenza A H1N1 has spread around the world with a horrifying speed. China has the largest population in the world, which makes China more vulnerable to Influenza A H1N1. Using the epidemiological survey data concerning 744 H1Nl-infected patients in Beijing during May 13, 2009 to August 15, 2009, this paper presents the epidemiological features. Based on 94 H1N1 cluster outbreak events, we studied the pattern of spatio-temporal evolution during the early phase of Beijing 2009 H1N1 epidemic. We also compared the spatial transmission network of the early Beijing H1N1 epidemic with that of the Beijing 2003 SARS epidemic. The results indicate that both networks are consistent from the point of view of structure. The triangle zones of the city central districts （including Dongcheng, Xicheng, Chongwen and Xuanwu） - Chaoyang District - Haidian District are the key places to control H1N1 epidemic. With the limit of emergency resources, efforts should be made on public health to prevent these zones from the spread of H1N1 Influenza A H1N1 infection. The emergency control measures implemented in Beijing are effective and timely.