我国出口企业技术性贸易措施经济损失预测研究

Research of the Economic Loss of Technical Trade Measures of China’s Export Enterprises

技术性贸易措施造成的经济损失是完全可以计量的。技术性贸易措施经济损失预测就是在已经获取某些评价指标值的基础上,通过所建立的经济损失预测模型,对技术性贸易措施给出口企业造成的损失进行预测。本文采用BP神经网络法构建了经济损失预测模型,预测准确率高达92.99%。预测结果表明,模型融合了各指标对企业应对技术性贸易措施的影响,指标的选择和模型的构建都是科学合理的,为我国出口企业的技术性贸易措施经济损失预测提供了新的思路。

The economic loss of technical trade measures can be measured. The economic loss prediction of technical trade measures predicts the economic loss of technical trade measures of export enterprises through the economic loss prediction model, based on some obtained evaluation indexes. This paper uses the BP neural network to build the economic loss prediction model. The forecasting accuracy reaches 92.99%. The forecasting result indicates that the model incorporated the influences of each index for the effects of the technical trade measure, and the choice of target and the construction of model are both reasonable. The paper provides the new method for prediction of the economic loss of technical trade measures of China＇ s export enterprises.