基于知识发现的电力负荷预测模型

Power Load Forecasting Model Based on Knowledge Discovery

负荷预测是电力系统的一个传统研究问题。针对黑龙江省的气象和经济特点,提出了基于知识发现的负荷预测模型。首先通过传统的近大远小方法生成基本预测曲线,并根据从历史气象资料及负荷数据中提取的规则加以修正,生成最终预测曲线。该模型在黑龙江省电网公司得以应用,收到了较为理想的效果。

Load forecasting is a traditional research field of power system, this work made an analysis for meteorological and economic characteristics of Heilongjiang Province,and put forward the load forecasting model based on knowledge discovery. First of all,generate the initial prediction curve by traditional method,and extract related rules from the historical meteorological data and load data, update the initial prediction curve using these rules, to generate the final prediction curve. The model has been used in software system of load forecasting of Heilongjiang power grid Co. ,Ltd,obtained desired results.