风电投资策略评估

Assessment on the Wind Power Investment Decision-making Strategy

风电作为一种清洁能源得到国家政策的大力扶持,但风电投资仍然存在一定的风险。在进行投资决策时需评估投资中存在的风险因素,并同时考虑投资调整的可能性。针对我国目前的风电投资环境建立了计及风机出力不确定性的风电项目总值估算模型,并应用实物期权理论建立了评估投资调整可能性的4种期权模型。仿真算例表明,较之传统的NPV评估方法或内部收益率法,该评估方法定量地分析了投资决策中不确定因素和各种可能的投资灵活性对项目可行性的影响,为项目决策人提供了更多的决策参考。

Wind power investment still faces some risks although it is supported by the government as one kind of clean energy. It is necessary- to assess the risk factors and possibility of adjusting investment when making investment decision. Based on the investment environment in China, a model was established to value the gross value of a wind power project with the uncertainty of the output of wind units into account. Further more, four kinds of option models were established to assess the possibilities of adjusting investment by applying the real options theo- ry. Simulation results indicate that compared with the conventional assess methods such as NPV or Internal Rate of Return, the assess method proposed in this paper can make quantitative analysis on the impact of uncertain factors and flexibilities in the investment on the feasibility of the project and provide more decision reference.