1987～2006年成都市经济生态可持续发展分析及ARIMA预测

Analysis of Economic and Ecological Sustainable Development of Chengdu in Recent 20 Years and Prediction Based on ARIMA Model

从城市经济生态可持续发展的角度，运用生态足迹分析法对成都市1987 ～2006年的生态足迹及相关指标进行测算，分析了近20年成都市经济生态可持续发展情况及变化特点。并以此为依据建立自回归移动平均模型[ARIMA（p，d，q）]，对成都市2008～2012年生态足迹和生态承载力的发展趋势作出了预测，结果表明，成都市生态足迹需求远远超过了其生态承载力，能源消耗、人口增长是其主要原因。未来成都市的生态发展压力较大。最后根据成都市城市发展可持续性的现状及发展趋势提出了建议。

From the perspective of urban economic and ecological sustainable development, the ecological footprint and related indicators in Chengdu from 1987 to 2006 were measured by Ecological Footprint Method, and its dynamic changes were analyzed. On this basis, the past 20-year sustainable development of economy and ecology in Chengdu was measured quantitatively. According to the change characteristics of average ecological footprint and average ecological capacity from 1987 to 2006, the prediction model named [ARIMA （p,d,q）] was used to predict the ecological footprint and ecological capacity in Chengdu from 2008 to 2012. The results show that the ecological footprint demand has far exceeded its ecological carrying capacity, and the main reasons are attributed to energy consumption and population growth. There is great pressure on futureeco --development. Finally, according to the status quo of sustainability of urban development as well as the developing trend in Chengdu, some suggestions are put forward.