基于GM(1,1)模型的江苏制造业能源消耗需求预测研究

Study on Prediction on Demand of the Energy Consumption of Manufacturing Industry in Jiangsu Based on the GM(1,1) Model

制造业能源消耗预测能够为各级部门制定能源发展战略提供决策依据。针对制造业能源消耗不确定的特点,应用灰色系统理论中的GM(1,1)模型,对江苏省1999年—2008年间制造业能源消耗量进行模拟,对模拟结果采用多种方法进行检验,并对江苏省2009年—2015年间的制造业能源消耗量进行了预测,结果表明GM(1,1)模型能够很好地模拟能源消耗数据,具有较高的模拟精度。根据预测结果进行分析,提出江苏省制造业在"十一五"末期和"十二五"期间的能源对策。

The prediction on energy consumption of manufacturing industry can provide a basis for decision-making of departments at all levels in establishing the energy development strategy. Focusing on the uncertainty of energy consumption of manufacturing industry, by using GM （ 1,1 ） model in grey system theory, the energy consumption of manufacturing industry during the period of 1999-2008 in Jiangsu Province is simulated. The result of simulation is verified by various methods and the projection on the amount of energy consumption of manufacturing industry during the period of 2009-2015 is made. The results show that the GM （ 1,1 ） model can simulate the data of energy consumption well and has better precision in the simulation. According to projection results, analysis is made and the energy measures of manufacturing industry in Jiangsu Province during the late ＂Eleventh Five Year＂ and ＂Twelfth Five Year＂ are proposed.