区域航空市场航线客流量预测研究

Analysis of Regional Airline Passenger Forecast Title

为了有效地控制和合理地分配区域航空市场航线客流量,提高航空机场的效率,为航管决策部门提供制定计划的理论依据,在深入研究国内外航空客流量预测研究成果基础之上,针对区域航空市场的特点,提出了一个自顶向下的航线客流量预测模型。它包括总体趋势预测、中长期预测模型和短期预测模型三部分;并将神经网络和支持向量机构成的组合模型引入中长期预测模型中,使用神经网络实现短期预测模型;并结合A公司实际进行了实证研究,证明了该预测模型的有效性。文中研究成果对所有航管部门具有一定的指导意义。

It is imported to planning for controlling and assigning airline passengers. Based on the research of domestic and international air- line passenger forecast, a new topdown airline passenger forecast model is put forward for the characteristics of the regional aviation market. The model consists of three parrs, a general trend forecast model,a long-term airline forecast model and a short-term airline forecast model. The long- term forecast model is established based on combination forecast theory consisting of neural network and SVM. The short - term forecasting model uses the neural network. Finally, a praetiacal example from A company is given to forecast the long- term and shor- term passenger flow, the result proves these models are effective. The result is imported for airline.