用GRAPES模式输出变量因子作广东沿海海雾预报

PREDICTION OF SEA FOG OF GUANGDONG COASTLAND USING THE VARIABLE FACTORS OUTPUT BY GRAPES MODEL

通过分析5年(2004—2008年)NCEP的1°×1°再分析气象资料,结合2004—2008年的台站观测资料和2006—2008年海雾野外试验的观测资料建立预报变量因子,利用GRAPES模式得到并输出变量因子。结合NCEP资料分析海雾出现的各种判据和条件,选取湛江、珠海、汕头3站为代表,建立了广东沿海自西向东各地区的海雾MOS判别预报方法,实现了24h的海雾判别预报。对2008年3月湛江和汕头、4月珠海的预报检验表明,该海雾MOS判别预报方法对广东沿海海雾具有一定的预报能力,预报准确率为84%～90%,Ts评分为0.40～0.53,Hss评分为0.52～0.56。

A number of predictors （factors of variables） were established and output by the Grapes model by using the NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis （2004--2008） and with reference to the data of sea fog from observational stations （2004--2008） and field observations （2006--2008）. Based on the criteria and conditions for sea fog appearance at the stations of Zhanjiang, Zhuhai and Shantou, a Model Output Statistics （MOS） scheme for distinguishing and forecasting 24 h sea fog was established and put into use for three representative coastal areas of Guangdong. As shown in an assessment of the forecasts of sea fog for Zhanjiang and Shantou （March of 2008） and Zhuhai （April of 2008）, the scheme was quite capable of forecasting sea fog on the coast of the province, with the accuracy ranging from 84% to 90%, the threat score from 0.40 to 0.53 and the Heidke skill from 0.52 to 0.56.