基于最优货币状况指数的政策评估:方法与应用

Evaluating Policy with the Optimal Monetary Conditions Indices

最优货币状况指数是以最优货币政策下所选择的各政策工具的实施力度之比作为相应权重而构建的货币状况指数。基于这个定义,本文构建了最优货币状况指数,分析了它在货币政策评估上的应用,得出几点主要结论:首先,不同于一般货币状况指数,最优货币状况指数除受原指数中相关参数的组合影响外,还受政策目标变量实际值与目标值偏离额的影响。其次,最优货币状况指数可以作为衡量货币政策实施效果的判断标准。再次,汇率和信贷政策与通货膨胀的关系及其在政策目标中的相对干预力度决定了名义或实际货币状况指数权重下货币政策的实施效果。

The Optimal Monetary Conditions Indices (OMCI) is Monetary Conditions Indices (MCI) which is modeled with the ratios of optimal monetary instruments' degree as weights.With the definition,we build a theory model of OMCI and analyze its application in policy evaluating.Some conclusions are drawn:firstly,OMCI is influenced not only by combined parameters in original MCI,but also by disparity between actual data and target one of objective policy parameter,which is different from actual MCI;secondly,OMCI can be criteria to evaluate the monetary policy;lastly,the relation between policy instruments of exchange rate and credit and policy target of inflation determines policy performance with rules of nominal MCI or real one,so does the relative degree of policy instrument.