产出/价格稳定性文献述评

Literature Review on Inflation/Output Variability

Taylor(1979,1993,1994)开创性的论文将学界对通货膨胀和经济增长之间关系的关注转向产出/价格波动性替代关系的权衡上。价格稳定性目标下,中央银行使用货币政策工具促使通货膨胀预期等于通货膨胀目标;但该过程在降低通货膨胀波动性的同时,不可避免地带来产出和就业的波动。在对相关文献综述的基础上,基于Rogoff(1985)的研究思路,本文构建政策决策者在产出/价格波动性之间替代性的选择模型,得出结论:当(需求或供给)外部冲击出现时,从社会福利损益角度来看,不确定性背景下产出稳定应该是比价格稳定更易接受的选择。

The pioneering papers of Taylor (1979,1993 and 1994) shift economists' concerns from the relationship between inflation and economic growth to the choice between the variability of inflation and the variability of output.Under the aim of price stability,the Central Bank uses monetary instruments to promote inflation expectations coming close to the inflation targets.But the process,which lowers inflation variability,will inevitably bring about fluctuations in output and employment.Reviewing on the literature about inflation/output variability,this paper constructs a model,based on the projects of Rogoff (1985),to analyze the choice of policy-makers about inflation/output variability trade-off,and then concludes that,alongside the (demand or supply) external shocks,it will be more acceptable to output stability than the alternative from the view of social welfare in the uncertain circumstances.