交通枢纽中换乘客流的非集计模型研究与应用

Passenger's Transportation Mode Selection Based on Disaggregation Model in Transport Hub

在基于非集计离散选择模型的基本理论与建模方法上,结合上海南站乘客换乘调查数据,并选择公交车、出租车、私人小汽车等在内的枢纽站中拥有的交通方式作为居民出行的方式选择方案,建立了交通方式选择MNL模型。然后应用SPSS数据统计软件对所建的MNL模型的参数进行了标定。结果表明,非集计建模方法能够较全面的考虑换乘乘客出行选择的各方面影响因素,该方法是可行的。并且相对于集计模型,它减轻了调查样本的数量,从而使得该方法更为经济和有效。

A multinomial logit model of passengers transfer is established based on passengers survey data of Shanghai South Railway Station by using the fundamental theory and modeling method of disaggregation model and by selecting the hub which takes bus, taxi, subway, private car and other modes of transport as the passenger＇s options. The parameters of multinomial logit model are calculated by using the SPSS （Statistical Program for Social Sciences） statistics software. The results show that the multinomial logit model is feasible in that it comprehensively considers influencing factors of passengers transfer. The most important thing is that it reduces the number of the samples and makes the prediction of transfer ratio more economical and effective when it is compared with statistical method.