影响中美贸易的诸因素分析

An Analysis on the Factors Influencing Sino-US Trade

本文采用2001年1月～2008年12月样本,在双边贸易引力模型的框架下,采用协整分析、向量误差修正模型等计量方法,在汇率和中美两国GDP等影响因素基础上,分析中国垂直专业化对于中国对美出口、中国自美进口和中美贸易差额的影响。研究结果表明,中国垂直专业化程度不断加深促进了中国对美出口、抑制了中国对美进口,加剧了双边贸易的不平衡。

In my paper, by using the samples from January, 2001 to December, 2008, I make an analysis on the effect of vertical specification of China to Sino-US imports and exports and trade margin. And it turns out that the deepening of China＇s vertical specification increase China＇s export to US, restrains import from US, and aggravate the imbalance of Sino-US bilateral trade.