我国企业盈余可持续性影响因素研究——基于EBO模型的我国上市公司实证数据

Determinants of Earning Persistence of Listed Companies of China:Evidence of Implied Terminal Value Estimates of EBO Model

本文在运用EBO模型计算了不同企业不同年份终端隐含价值的基础上,对影响终端隐含价值的因素进行了分析,发现企业预测期盈利能力、行业市场占有率、负债/资产比率、固定成本结构对终端隐含价值有显著正的影响,证明了代理理论适合我国国情,企业负债有利于企业盈利的长期可持续性;而企业规模、投资规模对终端隐含价值有显著负的影响,说明我国上市公司资金的使用效率有待提高。

By calculating the implied terminal value of every shares at different periods,this paper analyzes the determinants of earning persistence and finds that：（1） The market share and capital structure have significant positive effects on the earning persistence,which proves the correctness of agency theory. （2） Firm size and investment have significant negative influence on the earning persistence,which means the efficiency of investment of listed companies is to be improved.