陇东地区主要农作物干旱灾损动态评估

Dynamic Evaluation on Losses Caused by Drought of Main Crops in East Gansu

[目的]为陇东地区旱灾动态监测及灾损评估提供依据。[方法]利用陇东冬小麦、春玉米的产量资料及其相应的生育期、土壤含水量和气象资料,计算作物的因旱减产率,分析不同时期水分亏缺率与作物因旱减产率之间的关系,并建立主要农作物的干旱灾损动态评估模型。[结果]冬小麦各类模型的误差值均小于春玉米,冬小麦累乘模型效果好于累加模型和简化模型,而春玉米累乘模型效果明显差于累加模型和简化模型,因此实际应用中要通过比较,因地制宜,选用适合的模型进行监测和评估。[结论]应用干旱灾损动态评估模型可及时了解陇东地区干旱对主要农作物产量影响的动态变化。

[Objective] The study was to provide the theoretical basis for dynamic monitoring on drought and loss evaluation in east Gansu. [Method] With the yield data of winter wheat and spring maize and their corresponding growth period,soil water content and meteorological data from east Gansu,the yield reduction rate of crops cased by drought was calculated,the relationship between moisture deficiency rates and yield reduction rate of crops cased by drought was analyzed,and the dynamic evaluation model on losses caused by drought of main crops was established. [Result]The error value of different models for winter wheat was all smaller than that of models for spring maize. The effect of multiplicative model for winter wheat was better than that of accumulation model and simplified model. While the effect of multiplicative model for spring maize was obviously worse than that of accumulation model and simplified model. So in real application,the suitable model should be taken through comparison for monitoring and evaluation with local conditions.[Conclusion] The dynamic change of the effect of drought on crop yield in east Gansu could be understanded with the dynamic evaluation model on losses caused by drought.