河南省耕地承载力研究

Carrying Capacity of Cultivated Land in Henan Province

依据1998～2008年《河南省统计年鉴》,采用灰色预测模型及时间序列模型对河南省耕地承载力进行了预测,结果表明,虽然河南省人口自然增长率逐渐降低,增长的趋势逐渐放缓,但是由于基数较大,人口于2010年将突破10000万,人口压力依然较大;2010～2025年河南省粮食单位面积产量呈平稳增长趋势,平均年增长10.27%;河南现有耕地资源仅能承载温饱水平下的人口数量和人民的日常生活,随着人口的不断增长,耕地资源紧缺的问题将会日益突显,最终将阻碍河南经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高。针对现有耕地难以承载不断增长的人口与粮食安全的问题,提出了严格实施土地利用规划,提高农民自觉保护农地的意识,建立行之有效的耕地保护机制,促进土地节约集约利用,积极开展土地整理工作,加大执法力度,提高耕地利用效率七大保护耕地的措施。

According to the 1998-2008 Henan Statistical Yearbook,Grey Forecasting Model and Time Series Model are used to forecast the carrying capacity of cultivated land in Henan Province. Result shows that natural population growth rate is gradually reduced in Henan Province,but the population pressure is still relatively great due to the immense population base. Total population of Henan Province will break through 100 million people in the year 2010. In the years 2010-2025,grain yield per unit area in Henan Province will show a steady growth trend,with the average annual growth of 10.27%. Existing cultivated land resources in Henan Province can only meet the needs of daily life under the level of adequate food and clothing. With the growth of population,shortage of cultivated land resources is becoming more and more apparent,which will eventually hinder the economic development and the improvement of people＇s living standard in Henan Province. According to the contradiction between limited carrying capacity of cultivated land and the growth of population and food safety,we should strictly implement land use planning,enhance the land protection awareness of farmers,establish effective mechanism of cultivated land protection,promote the land economical and intensive use,actively carry out land consolidation,strengthen law enforcement,and improve the land use efficiency in order to protect the cultivated land.