基于影响因素角度和时间序列模型的耕地资源目标预测研究——以山东省安丘市为例

Target Prediction of Cultivated Land Resources Based on Influencing Factors and Time Series Model

以山东省安丘市为例,在介绍研究区概况的基础上,从耕地资源数量变化、耕地资源结构变化、耕地变化动态的区域差异3个方面分析了安丘市耕地资源动态变化状况,从基于粮食需求的耕地需求预测(人口规模预测、人口粮食占有量、粮食单产预测、复种指数预测)、经济作物生产对耕地需求预测、耕地需求目标3个方面探讨了探讨了影响耕地资源需求目标的因素,采用多项式预测模型和线性预测模型探讨了基于时间序列的耕地资源目标预测,为安丘市规划期内土地利用提供决策依据。结果表明,耕地总量呈逐年增多趋势,人均耕地数量相对稳定;水浇地占耕地比重逐年减少,旱地占耕地比重逐年增多;各乡镇街道耕地动态变化区域差异不大;由于人口数量的不断增加,人均耕地的数量将会面临很大的压力,耕地形势仍然不容乐观。

Taking Anqiu City,Shandong Province,China as an example,dynamic change of cultivated land resources of Anqiu City is analyzed from the aspects of the quantitative change of cultivated land resources,the structural change of cultivated land resources,and the regional differences of cultivated land change. Based on the land demand prediction of grain demand,the land demand prediction of economic crop production,and the land requirement goal,factors affecting the requirement goals of cultivated land resources are discussed. Linear Prediction Model and Polynomial Forecasting Model are used to discuss the goal forecast of cultivated land resources based on time series,which provides basis for decision making of land use in Anqiu City within planning period. Result shows that total area of cultivated land increases year by year and the per capita cultivated land is relatively stable. Proportion of irrigated cultivated land in cultivated land is decreasing gradually and that of dryland is increasing. Dynamic change of cultivated among township streets shows no significant regional differences. Due to the increase of population,per capita cultivated land will be under great pressure and the situation of cultivated land is still not optimistic.