房地产救市可行性的经济学分析——兼评《关于促进房地产市场健康发展的若干意见》

Economic analysis for feasibility of properties bailouting——discussion on Suggestions for Promoting Healthy Development of Properties Market

为了研究地方政府在房价波动中所起的作用,采用经济学方法对地方政府的房地产救市动机进行分析。分析表明,诺思悖论的存在容易导致最优政策的时间不一致性问题的发生,使地方政府缺乏解决房地产市场所出现问题的真正动力,因此使中央政府颁布的《关于促进房地产市场健康发展的若干意见》所能产生的实际效果大打折扣。分析结果表明:要真正解决房地产市场存在的问题,必须借助规则、声誉、民意有效监督等措施制止地方政府的相机抉择行为的发生。

In order to find the functions of local government in the house price fluctuation, the paper analyzes the bailouting motivation of the local governments through economic method. The results in the analysis indicate that the Nows paradox theory may easily result in the occurrences the time inconsistency of the best policies and a lack of motivation to solve the problems in properties markets so that Suggestions for Promoting Healthy Development of Properties Market issued by the central goverment may have poor outcome in the implementation. Accordingly, the author believes that the best way to solve the problems in the properties market is to do a good job through regulations, reputation and effective supervision so as to stop the local governments from choosing other countermeasures against it.