山东省污染物排放与经济发展水平的关系

The Relationship between Pollutant Emission and Economic Development in Shandong Province

以经济发展与环境污染水平计量模型——环境库兹涅茨曲线为理论基础,选取1981年以来工业废水、SO2、烟尘、工业废弃固体等污染物有效排放量为环境指标,采用人均GDP作为经济发展水平指标,通过二次及三次方程拟合回归,建立最优模型,分析了山东省经济不断发展与污染物排放量变化之间的关系。结果表明:进行三次曲线回归模拟效果较好,四项环境指标与经济发展水平的环境库兹涅茨曲线均呈现出近似"N"形的特征,污染物排放随着人均GDP增长都已经渡过了峰值,呈现下降趋势,但是近几年来,下降趋势停止并产生波动;环境库兹涅茨曲线特征与山东省产业结构变化以及环境保护政策有显著关系。根据研究结果,提出加强污染治理投资、增强环境保护意识以及完善环境保护法律法规等建议,避免环境污染水平随经济增长再次呈现上升趋势。

With the Environmental Kuznets Curve （EKC）, the relationship between environmental pollutant emission and economic development in Shandong Province was studied in this paper. The environmental pollution indexes included the effective emissions of industrial wastewater, SOz, smokes, and industrial total solid wastes. Based on the cubic polynomial regression analysis with GDP per capita as independent variable, EKC model was established to describe the changing trend of environmental pollution indexes from 1981 to 2006. The main results are as follows： （1） The Environmental Kuznets Curves of all of the four environmental pollution indexes present an N-shaped pattern. （2） Emissions of industrial wastes have passed through the peak turning points of Environmental Kuznets Curves, which means environmental pollution has been improved in recent years. During the period from 2004 to 2006, the environmental pollution is situated at the valley turning point, which means the emissions of industrial waste may rebound in the future. （3） The complex interactions are determined by such two characteristics as industrial structure and environmental protection policy. For sustainable development, industrial structure should be optimized to reduce the proportion of pollution industries, meanwhile, policies in finance, taxation, and environmental protection should be improved and investment for pollution prevention should be increased.