汇率变动对中国境外投资业绩的影响及对策

The Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on the Performance of Chinese Foreign Investments and Its Countermeasures

本文运用1994-2008年世界15个主要国家和地区股市的实际统计数据,将按当地货币计算的年均收益率、标准差和同期内按人民币计算的年均收益率和标准差进行比较分析,从股权证券投资角度考察了汇率变动对中国境外投资业绩的影响。该研究表明,汇率变动增加了境外投资收益的不确定性,对中国境外投资业绩的总体影响是负面的,因此,选择预期货币走强的国家或地区投资、构建分散化的国际投资组合并积极采用国际上通行的汇率风险规避措施日趋重要。

Based on the historic market indices of 15 major stock markets during the period from 1994 to 2008, this paper explores the impact of exchange rate movements on the performance of Chinese foreign investments through comparisons between the annual returns and standard deviations both in local currencies and in Chinese RMB. The results show that the overall exchange rate impact was negative during the sample period and therefore it is becoming increasingly important for Chinese investors engaged in foreign investments to construct diversified portfolio and adopt various financial contracts and operational techniques to hedge the exchange rate risks.