资产价格与通胀预期

Asset Price and Inflation Expectation

资产价格上升对宏观经济存在怎样的影响,这个问题已经成为目前中国宏观经济争论的焦点。本文阐述了资产价格和未来商品价格、通胀预期之间的理论关系,数据分析显示中国资产价格和商品价格之间存在较大失衡,这种失衡体现为资产价格隐含的高通胀预期,本文粗略估计了该通胀预期,认为从中央银行容忍范围和对总需求影响的角度来看,该通胀预期过高而难以实现。本文最后从总消费需求和金融稳定角度,分析了恢复均衡的另一种途径即资产价格下跌,认为资产价格下跌发生的概率较大,对宏观经济的负面影响也更小。

How does the surge of asset price influence China＇ s Economy has become the focus in academic circle of China＇ s macroeconomics. This paper firstly investigates the academic relations among asset price, commodity price and inflation expectation. Empirical study indicates that China＇ s asset price embodies high inflation expectation and the relative price system is far away from equilibrium. As the inflation expectation is much beyond the tolerance zone of the central bank and reduces aggregate consumption demand largely, it is almost impossible for the inflation expectation to materialize. From the perspective of aggregate consumption demand and financial stability, this paper finally argues that the slump of asset price is a superior method for the economy to converge to equilibrium.