就业压力、流动性过剩与宏观政策评论——“日本拐点”的到来?

Employment Pressure,Excess Liquidity of Banks and Macro-policy Review——the Arrival of Turning Point in Japan?

本文以中国三十年改革开放相伴随的剩余劳动力转移为基本线索,从非充分就业角度建立简单的开放条件下的中国宏观经济模型,以此研究中国宏观经济政策优化问题。基本结论如下:第一,剩余劳动力转移肇始于中国的工业化和城市化,附带制度和技术变革的资本投入改变了劳动力就业结构——剩余劳动力从农村向城市转移,即所谓的城市化和工业化进程。第二,在刘易斯拐点到来前,中国面临着一条水平的总供给曲线,在宏观经济学意义上意味着持续的经济增长伴随着低通货膨胀。第三,如果把上述长期就业问题短期化,在持续的要素就业压力下,中国被迫实施扩张性财政货币政策。第四,持续的扩张性财政货币导致了流动性过剩与低通胀并存的理论悖论,但形成了资产价格膨胀和高信用风险,即所谓"日本拐点"。

Based on the transfer of surplus labor in China since reform and opening up as the basic clue, this paper creates China＇s macroeconomic model under a simple open condition from the perspective of the non-full employment, and uses it to study optimization of China＇s macro-economic policy. Basic conclusions are as follows： First, the transfer of surplus labor starts from China＇s industrialization and urbanization, and capital investment which is attached by institutional and technological transformation changes the employment structure - surplus labor transfer from rural to urban areas, namely the so-called process of urbanization and industrialization. Second, before the arrival of ＂Lewis turning point＂, China is facing a horizontal aggregate supply curve, which means that in the macroeeonomie sense, sustained economic growth is coupled with low inflation. Third, if the above-mentioned long-term employment problem is converted to short-term problem, in the ongoing pressure of elements employment, China is forced to implement expansionary fiscal and monetary policy. Fourth, the continued expansionary fiscal and monetary policy leads to the theoretic paradox that excess liquidity coexists with low inflation, and causes expansion of asset price and high credit risk, namely the so-called ＂turning point in Japan＂.