以新思维审视中国外汇储备风险

The Study from the New View on the Risk of China's Foreign Exchange Reserves

外汇储备是一国国际经济活动往来形成的特殊的外币债权,中国经常项目、资本和金融项目的特点以及热钱的大规模流入决定了中国当前的外汇储备存在一定的不稳定因素。过多的外汇储备必将产生较大的机会成本风险,并且面临着较大且频繁的汇率风险以及境外金融机构倒闭和资产价格波动的风险,给国内的流动性控制和金融调控带来诸多的困难,增加了贸易摩擦的频率。要审时度势,通过加快国内经济结构调整、鼓励走出去、多元化运作储备资产等形式规避中国外汇储备所面临的风险。

Foreign exchange reserve is a special foreign currency claim formed by a country＇s international economic activities. Characteristics of China＇s current account, capital and financial account, as well as large-scale inflow of hot money, have determined that there is a certain instability in China＇s current foreign exchange reserves. Excessive foreign exchange reserves will cause a great risk of opportunity cost, and face high and frequent exchange rate risk and risk of foreign financial institutions out of business and asset price fluctuations, also bring about excessive liquidity in the domestic market and make our financial control more difficult, as well as increase trade frictions. To size up the situation, several measures should be taken to avoid these risks, such as updating the structure of our economy, encouraging domestic enterprises going out and diversifying operations of reserve assets.