M/OD失效风险评估系统开发及标准校验

M/OD Failure Risk Assessment System and Its Calibration

论述了空间碎片失效风险评估在航天器设计中的重要性,给出了自主开发的空间碎片风险评估系统(MODRAS)总体框架及图形用户界面。MODRAS分为空间碎片风险评估和微流星体风险评估两大模块,每个模块又包括M/OD环境模型、航天器建模、碰撞概率分析、失效概率分析以及航天器防护结构设计等功能模块。除了环境模型模块外,其他各功能模块均为共享模块,即可同时应用于空间碎片风险评估与微流星体风险评估。针对机构间空间碎片协调委员会(IADC)指定的单位立方体、单位球体及简单航天器3种标准工况,将MODRAS分析结果与美国航空航天局的BUMPER系统、欧洲空间局的ESABASE系统、德国MDPANTO系统以及航天五院MODAOST系统等国内外同类软件分析结果进行比较。结果表明,在微流星体环境下,MODRAS与BUMPER程序失效数分析结果相差在4%以内;而在空间碎片环境下,失效数分析结果最大相差8%,校验了MODRAS的分析精度。此外,还给出了3种标准工况遭遇M/OD的表面失效数分布。

The importance of M/OD failure risk assessment for spacecrafts design is analyzed.A graphical user interface technology based M/OD Risk Assessment System（MODRAS） is developed.It＇s frame chart of M/OD failure risk assessment system is presented, including two modules of orbital debris risk assessment and meteoroid risk assessment.Each module consists of functional modules for M/OD environment, the spacecraft geometry modeling, impact probability analysis, failure probability computing module, spacecraft shield design, etc.These functional modules are shared except the environment module.That is to say, they can be used in both orbital debris and meteoroid environment risk assessment.The system is calibrated by three standard cases of IADC specified.The results show that the computing precision of MODRAS is very good with precisions of similar software in different countries, such as BUMPER, ESABASE, MDPANTO and MODAOST.The discrepancy of failure number of MODRAS and BUMPER is less than 4% in the meteoroid environment.And the maximum discrepancy is 8% in the orbital debris environment.Therefore, the analytic precision of MODRAS is calibrated.The distribution of failure particles in the surface of cube, sphere and simple space station are given.