宏观经济波动的微观基础:基于股权配给角度的分析

On the Micro-base of Macroeconomic Fluctuation: A Perspective of Stock Rationing Behavior

当宏观经济进入衰退阶段,由于上市公司的股权配给,上市公司投资的边际破产成本上升,导致上市公司的投资下降,在投资乘数原理和加速数原理的相互作用下,会使宏观经济衰退更加严重,宏观经济陷入经济衰退与股权配给相互作用的恶性循环中,宏观经济衰退的程度会进一步加大。当宏观经济进入繁荣阶段,呈现与上述相反的过程,会导致宏观经济持续过度繁荣。因此,股权配给是宏观经济波动的加速器。我国的现实是,从微观角度分析,上市公司具有强烈的股权融资偏好;从宏观上看,政府进行股权配给。两者的共同作用,使股权配给具有平抑宏观经济波动的功能。

When the macro economy enters the decline stage, the financing enterprise＇s investment also declines as the result of the financing enterprise＇s stock rationing and the increase in the marginal bankrupt cost of the financing enterprise ＇s investment. The interaction of the multiple effect and the accelerator effect of the investment in turn will worsen the decline of the macro-economy, causing it to fall into the vicious cycle of the stock rationing and economic decline; thus, the macro economy will decline further. When the macro economy enters the prosperous stage, the trend will be reversed, resulting in continuous and excessive prosperity. Therefore, the stock rationing is a fluctuation accelerator The present situation in China is that the listed companies are inclined for stock financing from the perspective of micro-economy and that the government is inclined for stock rationing from the perspective of macro-economy. The two can work together to perform the function of suppressing and balancing the macroeconomic fluctuation.