世界核电发展及铀供需态势展望

Prospects of uranium supply-demand situation in world nuclear power development

以权威机构发布的最新资料数据为基础,介绍了世界核电近期至中长期的发展态势,归纳了当前世界铀生产的主要特点,初步分析了至2030年铀的供需关系。认为从世界层面看,铀资源对于近期和中长期的世界铀生产和核电铀需求是有充分保障的,世界铀生产可以满足近期的核电铀需求,但至2015年以后核电的快速发展时期又会出现较大的供需缺口。如果世界新铀矿山的投产和老铀矿山的扩产计划都能如期悉数实现,铀生产满足长期核电铀需求是完全可能的。

Based on the newest materials and data published by authoritative organizations,this paper introduces the near-term and medium to long-term development situation of world nuclear power,summarizes the main characteristics of recent world uranium production,preliminarily analyses the relationship between uranium supply and demand to 2030.It is suggested that from the view-point of whole world,uranium resources are fully sufficient for the near-term and medium to long-term world uranium production and uranium demand of nuclear power.World uranium production can meet the near-term uranium demand for nuclear power.However,a big supply-demand gap may exist after 2015 as world nuclear power will be developed with high speed.In case if all construction plans of new uranium mines and production-expansion plans of existing uranium mines will be completed on time,it is quite possible for the world uranium production to meet the long-term uranium demand of nuclear power development.