基于泰尔指数法的中国能源消费区域差异分析

An Analysis on the Difference of Regional Energy Consumption in China Based on the Method of the Theil Index

中国各区域的能源消费及其变动趋势存在很大差异,这一问题受到学术界的广泛关注。目前,国内学者关于区域能源消费差异的研究大多采用极差、变异系数、洛伦兹曲线、基尼系数等方法,很少有采用泰尔指数方法。本文用泰尔指数来测度中国区域能源消费的差异,对地区间差异和地区内差异对总差异的贡献率进行分解,并将以GDP为权重的泰尔指数与以工业增加值为权重的泰尔指数相比较,研究经济发展水平和工业化程度对区域能源消费差异的影响。结果表明:中国区域能源消费的总差异主要来源于区域内差异,而区域内差异主要是由东部地区省际差异所引起;自1995年以来我国区域能源消费的总体差异和东、中、西部内部差异均呈不断缩小趋势,但东中西部地区之间的差异对总差异的贡献率在逐年增大;由于能源消费量的70%都用于工业部门,本文经对比分析发现以工业增加值为权重计算的泰尔指数更能揭示区域能源消费的差异,而以GDP为权重则部分掩盖了这种差异。

Energy is the driven force and the most important physical foundation of economic development. It is expected that energy consumption will likely continue to rise due to accelerating industrialization and urbanization in China. To achieve the national energy strategy, it is necessary to examine the factors significantly affecting energy consumption in China. It is known that there exist marked differences in the gift for resources, economic structure and the processes of industrialization among different regions in China. This makes energy consumption explicitly show an evident regional difference. This problem has been receiving more and more attentions in recent years. It is noted that most of the studies on the regional difference of energy consumption made use of the methods of range, coefficient of variation, Lorentz curve and Gini coefficient. However, the method of the Theil index has been rarely used in this kind of study. Compared with other methods mentioned above, the method of the Thiel index has the ability to measure the differences both in a region and among different regions. Based on the method of the Theil index, in the present study, the author analyzed the regional difference of energy consumption in China and examined the effects of economic growth and industrial structure on the regional difference of the energy consumption through comparing the Theil indexes computed by taking GDP and industrial value-added as weights, respectively. The results showed that the total difference of the regional energy consumption primarily stemmed from the differences in the regions, while the differences in the regions were mainly caused by the differences among provinces in Eastern China. Since 1995, the total difference and the differences in Eastern, Middle and Western China have been decreasing. But the differences among Eastern, Middle, and Western China have been increasing. Given that 70% of energy consumption was used in the industrial sector, it can be concluded that the Theil index computed by taking industrial value-added as the weight tends to better show the regional differences of energy consumption, while the Theil index computed by taking GDP as the weight partly tampered the differences. In summary, it is the regional difference in economic development levels and economic structures that leads to a significant difference in regional energy consumption. This suggests that government take the regional differences into account in making national energy strategies. Meanwhile, both Middle and Western China are suggested to adjust the modes of economic development and improve the levels of technology as well as to effectively reduce energy intensity.