农地城市流转与城市化、经济增长动态关系的计量经济分析——以湖北省1980年至2003年为例

Dynamic Econometric Analysis of the Relationships between Rural-Urban Land Conversion and Growth of Urbanization and Economic in Hubei Province

为探讨农地城市流转与城市化、经济增长之间的相互作用和相互影响,本文依据湖北省1980年—2003年的时间序列数据,利用动态计量分析中的协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应及方差分解等方法,对城市化、经济增长与农地非农流转之间的长期动态关系进行了检验和分析。结果发现,湖北省农地城市流转与城市化、经济增长之间存在密切联系,并具有长期性。从误差修正模型来看,湖北省农地城市流转、城市化水平和经济增长对均衡呈现一种反向修正机制,并且误差修正对于农地城市流转的短期波动具有更为显著的调整力度,城市化水平和经济增长对农地城市流转影响的长期效应要大于短期效应;格兰杰因果关系检验表明,湖北省农地城市流转对城市化和经济增长有较强的解释能力,单向的因果关系表明,湖北省的农地非农转用对城市化水平提高和经济的增长的正向推动作用明显;而从脉冲响应分析和方差分解来看,城市化、经济增长与农地城市流转相互作用的效应存在一定差异。

Rural-urban land conversion is closely related to urbanization and economic growth, and the trends of the development show a strong correlation especially at the time of economic growth mainly depending on an increase in input. This study explores the dynamic relationships between rural-urban land conversion, urbanization and economic growth. To this end, some econometric methods such as the co-integration, Granger causality tests, IRF and variance decomposition were used to analyze relevant data of Hubei Province during the period 1980 to 2003. Results showed that there are long-term stable equilibrium relations between rural-urban land conversion, urbanization and economic growth in Hubei Province. In the long run, the restriction effect resulting from urbanization on rural-urban land conversion is obvious in Hubei Province, but under the condition of rapid growth of economy, land conversion is deemed inevitable currently. From the error correction model, rural-urban land conversion, urbanization and economic growth cause a reverse revision effect on stable equilibrium relations. In addition, there has a more significant adjustment on the short-term fluctuation. The long-term effects of urbanization and economic growth on rural-urban land conversion were found to be more significant than the short-term effects. Granger causality test showed that the rural-urban land conversion possesses have a better descriptive ability for urbanization and economic growth, and single-direction causality indicated that rural-urban land conversion plays a significant and positive role in urbanization and economic growth. From the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, the interaction effects between urbanization, economic growth and rural-urban exhibited certain differences. It was also found that urbanization contributes inversely to rural-urban land conversion and the effect is more significant. Therefore, in order to mitigate the contradiction between rural-urban land conversion and economic growth in Hubei Province, urbanization should be as a starting point. First, the role of economic growth in promoting urbanization should be given full play to improving the level of urbanization and enhancing intensive land utilization. Second, the industrial structure adjustment in Hubei Province should be accelerated, ensuring accordance of urban planning and land use planning with changing land use patterns and achieving an appropriate degree of the conversion between rural and urban land. Finally, it is necessary to control rural-urban land conversion by farmland protection policies and market mechanisms as well. The planning of capital farmland areas and the transfer of development rights can be combined to jointly control the rural-urban land conversion and achieve the land property.