GM(1,1)模型预测呼兰区(县)土地可持续利用

The application of the GM(1,1) model on the prediction of sustainable land use in Hulan District (County) of Harbin City

以1994-2003年呼兰区（县）土地利用结构数据为基础,采用主成分分析法对研究区的土地可持续利用水平进行实证研究,并借助GM（1,1）模型对其未来土地利用趋势进行预测;结果表明,呼兰土地利用可持续性逐年增强,比较符合研究区实际情况;灰色系统理论模型的运用不仅可以拓展土地可持续利用评价的研究方法,而且在反映土地资源利用的时间特征方面具有现实意义。

Based on the land use data of HuLan County from 1994 to 2003,the article do empirical research on the sustainable land use level by principal component analysis,and forecasts land utilization tendency of HuLan in the future with the aid of GM（1,1）model.The findings indicate that,land use sustainability of Hulan strengthens year by year,the result conforms to the research area actual situation.Using GM（1,1）model not only may develop the method of land sustainable use appraisal,but also has practical significance which reflects the land resource use in time characteristic aspect.