基于灰色Markov链模型的四川省耕地供给预测研究

Prediction of gross cultivated land in Sichuan Province based on Grey-Markov Model

立足四川省1997～2005年的耕地利用变化数据,运用灰色Markov链模型,对研究区未来年期内耕地供给量的动态变化趋势进行了科学的预测与模拟分析。结果表明,灰色Markov链模型用于受经济、科技、政策、人口及粮食安全等众多因素影响的耕地资源供给量预测,能够客观地反映出耕地资源动态变化的随机性和波动性特征,预测精度较为理想。

Taking the Hilly Country in the Sichuan Basin as an example,this paper predicts and analyzes the supply of infield in the future by using grey GM（1,1）prediction and Markov prediction mode1s,based on the dramatic change of cultivated land during the last 9 years（l997 to 2005）.The result shows that the prediction of cultivated land supply based on Grey-Markov Model has the advantage of high preci-sion,because this model reflect the random and the variability very well.Besides,the error of the prediction based on the model is more placidity than that other mode1.