城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金支付能力预测研究

Study on the Forecasting of the Solvency of Urban Employees’ Basic Endowment Insurance Fund

随着人口老龄化进程的加剧,我国城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金收支出现了巨大缺口并呈现逐步扩大的趋势,导致基金支付能力持续下降。本文应用社会保障精算方法与技术,以社会养老保险现行政策为导向,引入2005年颁布的《国务院关于完善企业职工基本养老保险制度的决定》中新养老金计发办法的经济参数,构建城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金收入与基金支出测算模型,其中以2006年新政策实施年为时间界限,分别构建"老人"、2006年前退休的"中人"("老中人")、2006年后退休的"中人"("新中人")、"新人"四类群体的基本养老保险基金支出测算模型,从而推导出城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金支付能力预测精算模型,以期对养老保险基金失衡风险和支付能力危机进行及时预测,并为社会养老保险政策调整和制度完善提供量化依据。

With the acceleration of the population aging process, China＇s Urban Employees＇ Basic Endowment Insurance Fund hasn＇t balanced with a huge gap expanding gradually, leading to the solvency of Urban Employees＇ Basic Endowment Insurance Fund continuing dropping. Combined with the methods and techniques of Actuarial Science for Social Security and oriented by the current policies of Sceial Endowment Insurance, this paper introduces the economic parameters in ＂The Decision for Improving the Urban Employees＇ Basic Endowment Insurance System by the State Council＂ promulgated in 2005, and constructs the revenue and expenditure calculating models of Urban Employees＇ Basic Endowment Insurance Fund. According to the year 2006 of the new policy implemented, the paper constructs the expenditure calculating models of Urban Employees＇ Basic Endowment Insurance Fund for ＂Old Workers＂, ＂Old Middle Workers＂, ＂New Middle Workers＂ and ＂New workers＂. Finally, the paper constructs the forecasting actuarial model of the solvency of Urban Employees＇ Basic Endowment Insurance Fund. The model is intended to promptly forecast the imbalance risk and payment crises in the Social Endowment Insurance Fund, and provides quantitative basis for the policy adjustment and system improvement.