全国棉花产量预报模式

A cotton yield prediction model of China

本文旨在建立应用于业务的全国棉花产量预报模式。其基本思路是,将全国棉花产区分成黄河流域、长江流域、西部内陆三大棉区,应用连续两年的产量差和气象要素差分别建立区域预报模式和全国预报模式。

This paper gives a routine prediction model for cotton prediction of China. The main idea here is that the whole cotton production area of China would be divided into three sub-region, the Yellow River cotton production region, the Yangtze River cotton production region and the westen China cotton production region. The regional prediction model for each region and the state prediction model are established with the cotton yield difference and the meteorological elements difference between the nabouring years.