云南省耕地需求量预测研究

The Forecasting for The Demand of Cultivated Land in Yunnan Province

耕地保护关系到粮食安全、经济发展和社会稳定，而耕地需求量预测是耕地保护前期工作的重中之重。本文采用Excel，SPSS等数据分析软件，对云南省1997—2005年的人口数、人均粮食占有量、粮食净调入或调出量、粮食平均单产、复种指数以及粮播比等数据进行处理，并建立相应的耕地需求量数学预测模型，预测出云南省近期（2010年）和远期（2020年）的耕地需求量，这对预测云南省耕地变化趋势，制定合理的耕地保护、开发对策，保障粮食安全具有较大的现实意义。

The protection of cultivated land is of very importance to the food safety, the economic prosperity and the public stability. The forecasting for the demand of cultivated land is the vital importance to the protection of cultivated land in the first-phase preparations. By using the data analysis programs of Excel and SPSS, the data of the population, cultivated land, average food consumption per capita, net export or import of food, per unit yield of grain production, second grain production index, and seeding rate of grains between 1997 and 2005 in Yunnan Province were analyzed in this paper. The mathematical forecasting model for the demand of cultivated land was established. The demand of cultivated land for short term （2010） and long term （2020） were forecasted. The tendency forecasting of Yunnan cultivated land has the practical significance to take countermeasure for the cultivated land protection and exploitation and to ensure food supply.