摘要
世界经济复苏步伐之强劲远远超出预期。IMF在2010年1月26日发布的《世界经济展望》最新预测中将对2010年世界产出的预测大幅提高至3．9％，上调了0．75个百分点。世界银行在1月20日发布的《2010年全球经济展望》报告中将2010年全球经济增长预测上调至2．7％。
The world economy recovers faster than previously anticipated. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted the global economy is bouncing back from negative territory in 2009 to 3.9 percent in 2010 and 4.3 percent in 2011. And the World Bank also says global economic growth is expected to be 2.7 percent in 2010 and 3.2 percent in the next year. But each area around the world will see different speed. Emerging economies, led by Asia, will grow more vigorously than advanced countries. The imbalance has existed since 2009, when the rich world grew at a rate of negative 3.2 percent, lower than the global rate of negative 0.8 percent. It was the emerging markets that saved the global economy. Among those, China and India played the leading role, each growing at a blistering rate of 8.9 percent and 5.6 percent. The faster growth in emerging markets does not mean a light-hearted future. To tackle the impact of global economic woes, these countries used enormous sums of money to stimulate the economy. These may lead to severe inflation. The increasing prices are also problem they have to cope with. Though the CPIs in most emerging markets are still in control, the PPIs have been ascending rapidly, which may impel the CPIs. With global commodity prices continue to go up and short-term capitals flow in, the prices in emerging markets may keep on rising. The governments will need to discreetly quit their stimulus plans in due course.
