长江流域旱涝趋势的主分量预测模型

The model for drought/flood trend prediction with the principal component along the reaches of the Chang Jiang River

在分析长江流域旱涝变化趋势及主要分布特征基础上,用提取的特征向量的主分量作为表征这一区域旱涝异常的指标。利用一种新的时间序列建模方案,建立了旱涝趋势的预测模型。

Based on the analysis of the variation and character of major distribution of the drought/flood along the reaches of the Changjiang River, the principal components of characteristic vector arc regarded MS,the drought/flood index. The trend prediction model is built using a new modelling scheme.