一种估计Logistic模型参数的方法及应用实例

A Method to Estimating the Parameters of Logistic Model and Application

分析了Logistic函数的解析性质,得到了曲线上三个关键点和三个不同的增长阶段,利用差分和最小二乘法,给出了Logistic模型的一种便于使用的参数估计方法.并通过实例,建立Logistic模型对我国城镇居民家庭平均每百户彩色电视机拥有量的增长变化趋势进行了分析和预测.

The analytic properties of logistic function was analyzed, and three key points and three different increasing stages of the curve were obtained. An estimating method of parameters of logistic model was obtained, which is convenience and suitable to be used . At last, a logistic model was built to analyze and forecast the increase trend of TV set per hundred urban residents＇s capacity possessing of our country .