2009年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

Performance Verification of the Medium-Range Forecasting for T639,ECMWF and Japan Models from September to November 2009

为更好地应用T639模式中期预报产品,对2009年9—11月T639模式96小时预报产品进行了天气学检验,并与ECMWF、日本模式进行了对比分析。结果表明:3种模式均对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能。综合来看,ECMWF模式对各系统及要素的预报最接近实况;日本模式和T639模式次之;ECMWF模式对0917号热带风暴芭玛(Parma)的预报较为成功,T639模式稳定性较差,而日本模式对"芭玛"的预报无论是路径还是强度都存在较大偏差。

In order to improve the ability to use the products of T639,some synoptic verification on its medium-range forecasting in 2009 autumn is made in comparison with the NWP of ECMWF and Japan models. The results show that the three models have good performances in the aspect of predicting the largescale circulation evolution and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitude areas.As a whole,ECMWF model is better in forecasting most weather systems compared with the T639 and Japan models.Taking tropical storm No.0917（Parma） as a case,it is found that ECMWF model gets the most correct results, and that T639 model has poor stability,whereas Japan model completely failed in forecasting the track and the intensity of Parma.