天气预报的公众评价与发布形式的变革

Necessity of Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts in View of Public Criticism

通过分析一位公众批评当地电视天气预报的事例,提出应该逐步改变天气预报制作和发布服务方式的问题。由于大气系统的混沌性以及观测和模式的不准确性,天气预报不可能做到100%的准确。因此,预报的不确定性是必然的。不定量地把不确定性表达出来,一个预报是不完备的。有了预报的不确定度,不同的用户就能根据自身对气象条件的依赖程度来作出不同的最佳决策以达到最好的经济和社会效益。当然,要成功地完成从当前的决定论观点到随机论观点的转变,教育和培训是关键。

An example of public criticism about the accuracy of TV weather forecasting was represented and analyzed. What can meteorologists learn from it to better serve public and end-users on a solid scientific basis.？ Given the chaotic nature of atmospheric system and imperfect observations and numerical models,it is scientifically impossible to predict the weather in 100%accuracy.How to evaluate weather forecasts is also problematic and confusing in many ways.Reform is needed in both the ways of producing and providing weather forecast information.A forecast without explicitly describing quantitative uncertainty information is incomplete.Inclusion of forecast uncertainty can,instead,maximize the economical value of a forecast and satisfy the needs for a wider range of users.It is time to quantitatively communicate forecast uncertainty to weather,climate,water and any kind of environmental prediction.Training and education to forecasters,end-users and public is the key to the success of this revolutionary transition from a deterministic to a stochastic point of view about weather forecasting.