基于WRF模式的云贵川渝地质灾害气象预报系统的应用

The Application of Yun-Gui-Chuan-Yu Geological Disaster Forecast System Based on the WRF

介绍了国家气象中心和中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所联合研发的基于ArcGis9.1的云贵川渝地区地质灾害预报系统。该系统是在可拓模型理论基础上建立的,其优点在于能将气象要素和地面要素紧密地结合在一起,形成雨—地耦合的区域泥石流预报模型。系统采用区域精细化数值天气预报模式WRF提供的高时空分辨率的精细降雨预报作为模型的动态输入,实现地质灾害发生概率的预报。目前,系统已经在中央气象台进行业务运行,每日在精细化数值天气预报系统提供的1小时间隔的数值降水预报支持下,定时启动预报系统。该预报产品目前已成为区域精细化地质灾害预报的重要参考。为了进行地质灾害预报效果的检验和评估,首先利用2007年6—7月份实况降水对WRF模型的预报降水进行检验。结果表明:中尺度数值预报模式WRF对区域性、持续时间长的暴雨过程预报能力较高,对于地质灾害预报服务具有较好的应用价值。此外,对2007年7月2—5日发生在四川盆地东部的部分地区的群发地质灾害个例分析及对2007年7月份该地质灾害预报系统的整体预报效果进行检验,结果表明:系统囊括了该次灾情大部分灾情点,总体预报准确率较高,业务中具有一定的应用价值。

By using the extensive theory,the Yunnan-Guizhou-Sichuan-Chongqing region＇s geological disaster forecast system was built up.The macro-scale model of WRF provides the precipitation forecasting for geological disaster forecast system.The probability forecast of geological disaster was produced.The system forecasts the probability of disaster on the lattice and then releases it in grade.Some localized tests have been done.The results show that the macro-scale numerical model WRF has some certain forecasting capability.The forecasting capability of WRF model for long duration and regional rainstorm is better,and then WRF can provide good application service for geological disaster forecast.During 2 to 5 July 2007,a series of geological disasters took place in eastern Sichuan Basin.The forecasting results showed that the geological disaster system could forecast the disasters well.Different types of rainfall,which caused the geological disasters,could be responded well and the prediction accuracy in July was better.The system has some certain effect.