T213预报产品在电力负荷预测中的应用

The Forecast Products of T213 Used in Power Load Forecast

用2005—2006年4—9月准东电网负荷资料和T213预报产品资料,建立日平均有效时间序列数据,对电力负荷与T213主要预报因子的相关性进行了分析,筛选出影响该地区负荷变化的重要预报因子为700 hPa水汽通量、850 hPa水汽通量和降水量,建立日平均电力负荷变化的预报方程。对2007年进行试报,负荷变化趋势与实际一致,但对负荷发生明显波动的预报有时出现偏差,原因是T213对降雨天气预报有误所致。提出改进方案,采用模式与预报员经验相结合,从气象观测要素中再筛选出新的降雨因子,与T213重要预报因子重建预报方程,再次试报结果更接近实况。对2007年4—9月预报误差进行分析得到,计划负荷平均误差为11.5%,T213建模平均误差为8.2%,通过改进后重新建模的平均误差为6.4%。在降雨天气条件下,计划负荷误差22.3%,T213建模误差13.4%,而改进后的预测误差降低到8.9%。

Based on Zhundong＇s power load information and the forecast products of T213 from April to September in 2005—2006,the effective time-serial data of daily average are established.Correlations of power load and T213 main forecast factors are analyzed.700 hPa water vapor-flux,850 hPa water vaporflux and precipitation are selected as those important forecast factors,and forecast equation of daily average power load variation is obtained.Testing forecast to year 2007,power load change tendency is consistent with reality,but there are some forecast errors sometimes when load makes fluctuate evidently.The reason is that T213 makes mistakes for forecasting rain weather.An improving scheme is combining T213 model with weather forecaster experience.The forecast equation is rebuilt by using T213 important forecast factors and new precipitation factors which are selected from weather observation elements.The forecast result is more accurate.After analyzing forecast errors from April to September in 2007,the conclusion is that the planed power load＇s average error is 11.5%,T213 model＇s is 8.2%,and the optimizing model＇s is 6.4%.In rain days,the planed power load＇s error is 22.3%,T213 model＇s is 13.4%,and the optimizing model＇s error is reduced to 8.9%.